Weekly Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis (Oct 07th ~ 13th, 2024)

BTC TA Report 0710

Disclaimer: The following content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The strategies and techniques discussed here are based on general knowledge and are intended to enhance understanding of various market concepts. Readers should conduct their own research and consider seeking advice from a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided does not account for individual circumstances, financial objectives, or risk tolerance.

1. Market Overview

BTCUSD_2024-10-08_13-56-02

  • Current Price: $63,611.6 (as of 12 PM UTC +8)
  • Trend: Uptrend from $60,400 to $65,600
  • Market Sentiment: cautiously bullish

The price has exhibited high volatility over the past week, beginning at approximately $65,600 before experiencing a significant decline to around $60,400 on October 3, a drop of over 7%. Since then, BTC has shown a clear recovery, surging back above $63,000, with notable bullish momentum heading into the current week.

2. Key Technical Indicators

Name Value Signal
Relative Strength Index (14) 52.53 Neutral
Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) 69.77 Neutral
MACD Level (12, 26) 1,148.93 Sell
Exponential Moving Average (10) 61,947.64 Buy
Exponential Moving Average (20) 61,548.16 Buy
Exponential Moving Average (30) 60,046.16 Buy
Exponential Moving Average (50) 55,697.25 Buy
Simple Moving Average (50) 56,674.48 Buy
Simple Moving Average (100) 41,087.92 Buy
Simple Moving Average (200) 40,020.72 Buy
Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26) 60,628.72 Neutral
Volume Weighted Moving Average (20) 61,604.58 Buy
Overall Buy

3. Support and Resistance Levels

P = Pivot point

S1 2 3 4 = Support level 1, 2, 3, 4

R1 2 3 4 = Resistant level 1, 2, 3, 4

Open: $65,634.66

High: $65,635.05

Low: $59,878.80

Close: $62,818.95

Pivot S4 S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3 R4
Classic 48,407.7 54,163.9 59,920.2 62,777.6 65,676.4 68,533.9 74,290.1
Fibonacci 57,021.4 59,220.2 60,578.7 62,777.6 64,976.5 66,335.0 68,533.9
DeMark 52,714.5 56,296.7 58,470.8 62,052.9 64,227.0 67,809.2 69,983.3
Camarilla 59,653.0 61,236.0 61,763.6 62,291.3 63,346.6 63,874.3 64,401.9 65,984.9

4. Volume Analysis

The volume chart indicates that the most significant trading activity occurred during the sell-off on October 1–3, as seen by the large red volume bars. This selling pressure drove BTC’s price to a low of $60,400. However, as the price began to recover, particularly around October 4–5, the green bars indicate a strong uptick in buying interest. The volume accompanying the latest price surge past $63,000 is noteworthy, suggesting renewed bullish interest.

Key observations from volume analysis:

  • Selling Volume (Oct 1–3): High selling pressure caused by potential liquidations or broader market fear.
  • Buying Volume (Oct 4–6): Strong recovery buying, signaling accumulation by bulls, with volume increasing during the price rise.
  • Current Volume: Buying activity is still healthy, supporting the upward momentum.

5. Sentiment Analysis

  • Market sentiment has shifted from bearish to neutral-bullish following the recent recovery. The sell-off earlier in the week likely triggered short-term panic or liquidations, but buyer confidence returned quickly, absorbing the downward pressure and pushing BTC back to higher levels. The recent break above $63,000 suggests growing optimism, but caution remains as the market faces resistance near $64,000 and previous highs at $65,600.
  • Overall, sentiment appears cautiously bullish, but traders are watching key levels to confirm a sustained upward trend.

6. Trading Strategy for the Week

For Short-Term Traders:

  • Buy Zones: Consider buying on pullbacks around $62,000–$60,400, where the market has previously found support.
  • Sell Zones: Look to take profits near $64,000 or $65,600, where BTC might face resistance.
  • Stop Loss: A stop loss should be placed below $60,400, as a breakdown of this level could trigger another leg down.

For Long-Term Traders:

  • Long-term buyers can look to accumulate on any dips back towards $60,400. The recent price action suggests that Bitcoin remains in an overall bullish trend, with key resistance levels around $64,000–$65,600 needing to be broken for a stronger bullish continuation.
  • Should BTC break and hold above $65,600, it could signal a resumption of the broader uptrend, opening the door for a potential rally toward $68,000–$70,000.

Risk Factors to Watch This Week:

  • Resistance at $64,000–$65,600: This area may act as a psychological barrier. If BTC struggles to break through these levels, it could signal a short-term top, leading to further consolidation or a pullback.
  • Broader Market Sentiment: Any negative macroeconomic news, regulatory developments, or changes in risk sentiment in global markets could lead to renewed selling pressure.

7. Conclusion

Bitcoin has shown resilience after a sharp sell-off early in the week, with strong buying volume supporting its recovery. The market is currently trading at a crucial juncture, and traders should watch for a breakout above $64,000–$65,600 to confirm a bullish continuation. A pullback to $60,400–$62,000 could present a buying opportunity for both short- and long-term traders, but caution is advised near resistance levels.

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